on your money. but this rally is also different for another reason. that is, the re-emergence of the activist investor. in the past few months, we've seen aggressive investors push managements to change course, through asset sales, mergers or spending that stock pile of cash. these are the moves they otherwise may not have done at this moment in time. xeefs are allocating capital through dividends, deals and other shareholder friendly moves. whether it's dell, hess, apple, jcpenney, her ba life, just to name a few. today's activist investor is back and once again, getting the attention of corporate mansion m across business. as we heard earlier in the program, even companies like disney, with a great stock performance over the years, are fending off activist investors. so, this along with modest valuations is a big change from 2007, and certainly from the '90s when we saw a special kind of euphoria. at the end of the day, you have to look at this rally and be reminded, over the long-term, 10, 20, 30-year periods, history proves that stocks always come back.

they have proven to be the best asset to own over the long-term to build wealth creation. why? because you are buying into american companies, whose goals are simply to grow over time. does that mean there is not a big selloff on the horizon? not at all. i am expecting it. but i am also expecting that selloff and many sell offs to be met with that buy on the dip mentality. pick your spots and of course your entry levels, but when all is said and done, equities remain the most desired place for investors today over the long-term. you just may need a set belt for when the ride gets bumpy. before we go today, look at the day on wall street. it was a winner. the dow jones industrial average at a new all-time high, 14,296.24. up 42 points on the session. another third of a percent gained. nasdaq, close but no cigar. it actually ended negative. and the s&p 500 up a fraction. as you can see. tomorrow, don't miss a very special "closing bell." jack welch is my special guest host for the entire hour. and blackrock ceo larry fink

will be here. we'll find out how he's investing. we'll see you tourism. that will do it for "closing bell" tonight. stay with cnbc. "fast money" begins right now. live from the nasdaq market site in new york city's times square. i'm melissa lee. trash to vez sure. can stocks that have gone from dulds to studs continue to lead this market higher? we're taking a closer look at whether this rally really has legs. friend or foe? a facebook faceoff ahead of a key even tomorrow. and why ron johnson's pain has been one of our trader's gain. we'll tell you how to play it. but first, let's get straight to the traders here. what is your top trade today with the dow, yet again, closing at a record high. tim, start with you. >> the run to trash may be what's going on in the miners, deaf it in will in the gold miners. these are places where we think fundamentals are outweighing. when you get to bhp, these games

have lagged this rally over the last couple of days. if everybody believes china is back on track, you need to own these names. we're buying dips here. >> b.k.? >> you know, i like buying for profits, some places -- >> oh. >> that's a good one. >> thank you. anyways, i looked outside -- >> yeah, anyway. >> i looked outside the u.s. for the trade today. i think china is a great place to be right now. fxi is the trade. i've been waiting all week for them to make comments about supporting the stock market, about supporting economy. we got that last night. china, the fxi, is up 26% from the december lows as compared to the s&p, only up 14. >> what was it specifically? 10% increase in spending on stimulus programs? what exactly was it? >> no, it actually was the fact they talked about the pension funds need to expand their scope of investments. so, to me, that is kind of a first step in, where else are they going to invest, instead of real estate. >> if it's had such outperformance, versus the s&p,

isn't that, you know, some place that say it's already priced a lot of that in? >> it's come off a little bit. 26% run, it's come off, 6%, 7% from the peak. it's held, fxi's held 38, the shanghai composite held $22.50. so me, that's my stop point. that's support there. and i think it's going higher. >> this is my favorite trade of the day. >> yes, bought some jcpenney out of the money calls. but it really was very much a portfolio management decision, not in any way a bullish jcpenney bet at all. trying to lock in some of the profits from the short and, you know, given how big the short interest is here, and how much pile-on there's been, it wouldn't be so shocking to see some event that could cause a snap-back, whether it's ron johnson being fired, which i don't think happens, or them settling the mamacy's suit. something. i feel like kind of an idiot -- >> what are the odds do you see of ron johnson being out in six months. >> that is possible.

the trial could be sort of the, you know, if they lose, could be sort of the last straw for some of the board members who, i imagine are not delighted. but here's the thing. you can't -- if you fire him now, which i don't think is happening, there should be finalizing their back to school. and then very shortly after that, they got to work on christmas. and it's very difficult to do that when you have nobody running the ship. so, i think -- i think six months from now, totally different story. >> okay. guy? >> hi, mel. >> hey. >> funny you mention from dud to stud. that's the brian kelly life story. made for tv movie. >> jokes like i told at the top. >> you were talking this morning, it's been a monster, but amgn, people talk about, that stock made an all-time high today. the valuation is not crazy for a biotech. if you are looking for a stock that hasn't moved to the same

level that celgen has -- >> is that seeing the end of the road? >> i hope not. when everybody -- >> is that why you cited my program at the top? >> oh, no, no. >> when everybody starts talking about it? >> to his defense, he's been talking about that for awhile. when it becomes main stream, you have to worry it's getting overdone. i still like it. i think i like amgen more. >> let's talk trash here. >> let's do it. >> call it the dash or trash. lower quality names have led this last bull run. netflix is the best performing stock year to date. mbia, best buy, linkedin as well as zynga. we have said many times on this desk, you stick with what is working. these stocks, this year, have definitely been working. >> well, yeah. let me take mbia. this is a name -- >> hot trade. >> very, very broken and a name that takes us to the teeth of the financial crisis. i would say with the dash for

trash, it's all about a stock-specific or special situation. and mbia, law suits against this firm because, effectively, they sequestered -- maybe a nice word to be using these days, they kwarn teed off, they siphoned off a big amount of good assets from this bank and took it away from, essentially, the credit torps, like bank of america, like sockgen. it looks like they are going to win that case, i mean mbia. that's part of the big surge today. it's about the normalization of their balance sheet and taking away some of the liabilities. i think there's more to go here. >> when i saw this list, guy, i thought to myself, self, is linkedin considered trash? >> by a lot of people -- >> why? >> valuations are ridiculous. 95 times forward earnings. i understand it is stretched. but i understand a lot of corporations are using linkedin, exclusively, in their searches. an article in "the journal" about pepsi doing just that. i get the fact that valuations are stretched. that was the argument we made against the stock when it was trading 98 bucks.

i remember. we had it on this desk. yeah, 175, a lot more difficult, but there's another run to the upside in this name. >> yeah, linkedin, of all of these, probably has the best prospects. they let the user monetize what they are using. of the list here, though, the one i would get out of is zynga. i mean, it is -- first of all -- >> what do they do? >> they sell virtual animals, so -- >> farmville. >> you haven't played farmville? >> no. >> now, they're going to get into the online gaming segment. there are zero barriers to entry. anybody can write those programs. up just have to hire computer engineers. i would sell this one with both hands. >> you don't think with the legalization of gambling in new jersey and nevada that zynga becomes a takeout target by some casinos as, you know what, we can -- >> why wouldn't they just hire -- why is it zynga? just hire another engineer, somebody to write it, somebody who writes a great app? i don't think it has to be zynga. >> i don't think you can buy something just on the hope of a takeover while the business is kind of imploding might be too

strong -- >> insane. >> what it you say? >> insane? >> put this business plan in front of you, said, what we're going to do is sell fake things on the internet -- >> that sounds like a genius business model. >> apparently, i guess. >> it was genius for atime. let's move on. drill down on netflix here. the company stock price is already doubled this year. can the run really keep going? let's bring in michael packter. michael, great to see you in person. i don't think i've ever met you in person, pry ior to today. the story seems to have really changed substantially in the past nine months or so with netflix. at this point, with this run, is it still a buy in your view? >> i have a sell on it, so, the answer is no to that. it's deja vu all over again. people thought it that were going to go to infinity and beyond a couple of years ago. i was on this show when the stock top ticked at $304 and i had an $80 price target. my target is now $55. this is a worse company today than it was a couple of years

ago. they destroyed their dvd business, a source of three-quarters of their profit. they are chasing windmills overseas and the contenters are never going to let them make money over there. their growth in the u.s. has been very good. but i think investors substantially overstate how profitable that business is. their valued like they're going to make $30 per domestic sub and they make about 250. so, they have a long way to go before you can justify this valuation. i don't see it going higher. >> so, michael, i remember when you were on, spot on that time. what do you attribute this move to? the stock is almost quadrupled now in a year, so, what do you attribute the move to? $210 price target today from rbc. what is going on in the stock specifically? >> i love mark. he's an optimist. i'm more of a cynic. netflix did something very clever in the fourth quarter. they generated $950 million in revenue and spent $937 million. so, $13 million took the market

cap up $5 billion. that lower spending was lower tech spending, lower marketing spending. i don't get how investors believe that that one time tweaking of their spending is worth $5 billion. nothing changed. i mean, all they did is become profitable. people thought they were going to lose a little bit of money, like 10 million bucks. they made 13. who cares? i don't get it. >> you know, it's funny, michael, because you cover a lot of these so-called trash stocks. >> four of them. >> you're like the trash analyst. >> and i have a buy on one of them, which is linkedin. >> zynga? >> yeah -- >> tell me why i'm wrong that it's not an insane product. >> you're right that the entry into gambling are low. they have 30 million people who play free poker, so, there's a thought that perhaps some of those people actually play real poker. i'm one of them. i agree with you, that the entry is low and guys like caesars are going to dominate, because they own the world series of poker.

the fact is that zynga is trafding at a $1.4 billion exequity valuation. they have 300 million -- monthly users. they are trading at $4 per monthly user. doesn't take much to justify that. netflix trades at a $400 per user valuation. that just makes no sense at all. linkedin, $100, right, in between. i think it's rich. i have a neutral but i actually love the company and the product. no competition. nobody's coming. the fourth one you didn't talk about is best buy, which i don't get that one at all. the founder's not buying it anymore. they hired a great cfo who is cutting costs, but nobody seems to be focused on the fact they are going to continue to lose market share forever and if they keep losing market share forever, they're going to stop making money. i don't get it. >> so, today, it go an upgradedy jeffrey's, competitors of youyour yours -- >> they chase what's hot. everybody likes momentum. i don't mean him in particular, i mean, if a stock goes up --

you gave me grief for my $80 price target on netflix, you flat-out said, why don't you have a $200 price target? and the sell side does that. we are not in the momentum business. maybe some investors are. i'm in the business of telling you what something's worth. it didn't change just because best buy hired a good cfo. >> michael, good to see you. >> do we run that as a deco? >> sell side. >> are you a tool? >> just ask it straight out. in terms of the call on zynga, you change your mind? >> certainly michael makes the valuation argument fairly well and that's not my forte, so, i'll defer to him on the valuation part. i just -- i think after a stock 55%, with a questionable business plan -- no, i would not be buying it with anybody's money, not even guy's. >> oh! >> not even guy's. that's really saying something. hit pops and drops. pop here for verifone, up 8%. karen? >> we weren't wildly impressed

by the conference call last night but i didn't cover the rest today. no man's land here. >> pop here for johnson controls. up 2%. guy? >> a lot of chatter they potentially could sell off some of the businesses they have. the stock, monster move today. 52-week high on six times normal volume. i don't think you should be plowing in on the long side tomorrow. >> a drop for air environment. down 9%. >> yes, one of my favorites, down 35% in terms of their sales. this stock is at five-year lows. tough to see it breaking from here. >> pop for first solar, up 3%. mike khouw? >> raymond james upgraded them to a market perform from a sell. this guy's been very bearish on this sector, but going to a market perform, i think, only means that things aren't as bad now that the stock's down 30% from where it was two weeks ago. >> pop here for freeport, up 4%. beekers? >> they are going to sell more

copper to china, probably double the amount of copper they sold in the past. copper itself, the metal, has gone lower, so, the better way to play if you want to play, is freeport, but watch out if it breaks below 30 bucks. >> we shorted this pop today, by the way. >> you did? good to know. pop here for the sunstone. >> huh? >> want to be able to navigate the ocean like a viking? >> no. >> sure. >> okay, go on. >> or just act like one. >> french researchers they believe they have found the sunstone, a crystal tool that the vikings used to sail the seas, according to mythology -- >> arr. >> is that a viking? >> allow the users to find the sun's position in total darkness. researchers are confident they have rocked the boat in the field of viking studies. >> would you need that tool in light, though? when you are trying to find the sun, right? >> sunstone. >> i mean -- >> maybe it -- >> what do you think about chuck foreman, mel? >> when did this album come out?

"waiting for the sun," mel. >> i don't know. >> number 44, baby. >> doors album, what year? >> '77? >> no. >> '68. >> tim! right on, man. >> gold stars for everybody. coming up, dell shares going higher. we tackle what this could mean. plus, winning plays for the bull stampede. barbara marcin on what she's betting right now. and, why two traders don't ape agree where facebook shares are heading next. that's coming up next. with fidelity's new options platform, we've completely integrated every step of the process, making it easier to try filters and strategies... to get a list of equity options...

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to deposit checks from anywhere. [ wind howling ] easier than actually going to the bank. mobile check deposit. easier banking. standard at citibank. david faber breaking the news that carl icahn is joining the dell battle by likely taking a 6% stake in the company. what's more, dell's largest independent sharehold holholder considering a counter bid. so, can michael dell pull this off? and karen, obviously, it's -- you know, we don't know what, or if, carl has done anything -- >> well, we think ten days from now, for sure. he has ten days after the date he goes over 5%. so, i don't know if that was ten

days ago or today, but that would be the window. >> right. >> in terms of what the game plan could be, i mean, if carl -- i don't know, guy. carl's a pretty tough competitor here, but he hasn't always won. >> no. but his track record's pretty good. i mean, the lionsgate was a problem. we had other notable problems. but this netflix was a tremendous score. i think the game plan is simple. make the stock go higher. and i think that's what it always is about, with the -- so, i can't tell you from a business perspective what it is, but i think it's purely a stock play. and the risk-reward probably sets up if his favor at this point. >> if the deal were to blow up tomorrow, i don't know, given how much interest there is, what the down side would be. if it is true he's talking about a $9 dividend, so, basically levering up the company, it seems to me, that's -- that's an odd time to do that for an industry that is really in a state of flux. and to take on, i mean, they do have cash, it would be using the

cash and then additional debt, i don't know. that's -- i can't see that that's what dell wants to do. if he's going to take on debt, let it be private and control it. not have to deal with the outside world. i don't know. i'm not in it. >> buy or not? >> well -- yes. i'm a way buyer. >> you would? >> yes. the reason why is, now you have a stop out point. it's been trading above the bid for awhile now. clearly some people are thinking that this is going higher. you have carl involved, tough investors involved. and like karen said, if it does blow up -- >> you have to put. >> exactly. >> all right. let's move on here. this is a good chart of the day, sent to us by tom demark. for the first time since april 2011, there is a confluence of monthly, weekly and daily indicators. so, the index will likely top out when it hits 1567.40.

so, an exact number. 1567.40. if history is any guide, demark says this could have serious and negative consequences for the market. tim, i know you follow him very closely. >> yeah, i follow him quite a bit. tom is a market timer. he's looking at exhaustion points. this is a powerful signal. tom called around 1500, we'd get a pull-back before we go up to a level where he thinks we are running out of gas. the fact you are lining up on the daily, weekly and monthly, this is a play where you get powerful combinations and the 13 counts are places to take a look. >> what he's saying is exactly the opposite of what louise said last night. that's very interesting. i know jim was talking about louise today. be interesting if he has any feedback on tom tonight. i'm sort of in the tom camp and i've been that way for awhile. >> how do you use this? it confirms what you already believed. >> we spoke to this, the vix is giving you an opportunity, if you are long anything, to buy

p protective puts at a decently low volatility. or, you though what? if you are long stocks right now, say maybe it's not such a bad place to either take off a portion of all of your positions. you can always get back in. there's no rule that says you can't. so, again, we've talked about this level for awhile. use the chart to your benefit or don't acknowledge it. if it goes lower from here, don't blame us. >> don't call me about it, right? all right, so, if you are concerned about this bull market losing steam, what's the best strategy for picking stocks right now? four-star fund manager barbara marcin joins us with her strategy. barbara, great to see you. >> nice to be here. >> you focus on dividend growth. and the problem -- i don't want to say problem, but the poke that people have with stocks are that these are the stocks that have powered higher and reaching valuations that compared to their own historical valuation, some would argue, are rich. how do you counter that at this point? >> by really choosing individual stocks. some sectors are definitely -- have seen the benefit of having high yields, like the utilities

sector. that has higher pes relative to the market than they should. because of their yield. but if you pick individual stocks, they have characteristics, that indicate good valuation and longer term growth, up know, i look for five things. i look for a company that is a good cash generator, that pays a good current dividend, because that's management saying they believe in that cash. that has a chance to grow the cash over the next few years, that -- where management also is really trying to manage their balance sheet and their cash in order to return money to shareholders and finally that sells at a relatively cheap valuation, less than 14 multiple. >> let's get into specific stocks. international paper. i pull it up, my machine tells me it trades at a 25 pe, which seems really rich for a paper company. you said based on the other characteristics, it's still good. >> yes. international paper is almost a poster child for these characteristics. very strong cash generator. has raised the dividend five times in the last few years. management has sold off non-core

assets and reinvested the cash, both not just in dividends, but also has made investments in chinese, brazilian, russian paper markets, and those investments are going to start generating cash and earnings over the next year or two. really a relatively good multiple here. not the 25. >> let me ask you something. in your space, do you look at when -- if we get a big movement in interest rates, do you ignore that or how does that fit into your model, seeking dividend stocks when the relative valuation changes? >> well, since these companies, i'm looking for companies that can grow that dividend and earnings over time. so, i don't think that they will be effected, because i don't look at them as simply high yielding companies. you know, the main characteristic of them is not just to buy them because they have high yields but because they can grow their cash over time. so, i don't think that a rise in interest rates, which i do think will actually hurt all stocks,

will hurt them disproportiona e disproportionatley. zblf if y . >> if i want to put together a bond proxy, what would you say, you know, two, three names i should have in the portfolio? >> sure. well, international paper is a good one there. pfizer. a number of the fapharmaceutica companies look very good here for the next few years. they can have increasing multiples on increasing earnings, which really gives you -- and they are going to other lengths to try to increase shareholder value. pfizer just spun off into the animal health group. conoco phillips, which has a high yield, which will be increasing its production about 25% over the next five years. so, even assuming that gas prices remain low, which, of course, has been a problem for conoco phillips, they should be able to increase their earnings. but at some point, we'll get a better gas price. jpmorgan.

next week, we have the new sea car results. announce new plans to return cash to shareholders, so -- those are a few of them. blackrock. >> barbara, thank you for joining us. barbara marcin. which picks do you like or not like? >> i like, barbara would probably say, she's still sitting here, and she can say, but this is about where you have growth and getting it at a reasonable price. these games are blowing into africa, for example, this is what i like. other guys in this space trading at premium multiples and it is still relatively cheap. coming up next, why tim and karen are getting anti-social over facebook. a street fight is brewing over the social media stock's recent run. one stock, two opinions, one street fight. and commodities king dennis gartman tells us what is next for the oil market following the death of hugo chavez. much more "fast" straight ahead. if you think running a restaurant is hard,

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for the last decade, the poll sills of hue go chavez kept venezuelan production down and oil prices up. what does his passing mean for the oil markets? let's get more with dennis gartman. hey, dennis. good to see you. >> good to be seen, as always, mel. >> what is the ultimate impact, i guess, you know, there's so many moving parts here. a lot of it is going to depend on what you think the political situation will be now that he's gone. >> i think it will be stabilized faster than we believe. mr. maduro has been chosen as the vice president. he's probably going to run again for election. he probably will win. i don't think he has a great good deal of opposition coming up. and he's going to have to bribe his way, for lack of a better

term, to a victory. he's going to increase production out of venezuela as much as he possibly can. we have seen this before in third world nations when they get in a fix. i think they're going to increase their production as rapid lip as they can. they have done a terrible job under chavez, the oil situation, really deteriorated. he let the machinery get bad. but i think the only thing that can happen here is a very rapid increase in production as quickly as they can. it is very bad oil. no one really wants it. as it has a very low api. a very high sulfur content. but they're going to produce it and sell it. >> so, when i first thought about this and you think that the vice president is going to take over and likely be re-elected, you would think that would mean political status quo and the lack of investment in the oil sector. butch you think the opposite? >> oh, i think the opposite. i think he has to produce as quickly as he can, as much as he can. i use the term bribe. he has to bribe his way into

popularity. he's running behind somebody who was diafied and in order to solidify his position, he has to pick up production. >> he was chosen because he's a chavista. >> no question. >> we've seen their production fall over the course of 15 years. how quickly can they ramp this up without the benefit of western technology and a lot of guys they've thrown out of the country and confiscated their assets? so, who is going to jump back in here any time soon? >> i'm not sure there's going to be anybody from the united states that wants to go in there, but i wouldn't be surprised if you could find somebody from the gulf. they'll have to bid the price up. that's what economics is all about. they're going to have to make it viable to come there. it's going to be six months, a year, a year and a half or so, before they get back to 3 million barrels, but timmy, they got up to 2.9 million in the past month in a half to 2.5.

they can push it to 3. is it going to happen tomorrow? is it going to happen by next tuesday? no, it's going to happen over the course of the next six months. but he has no choice. he has to increase the production as quickly as he can. >> so, the bottom line here, dennis, you think it's bearish for oil but not necessarily tradeable right now. something you're watching. >> that's correct. it's not something. one does not go out and sell crude oil, wti, or brent short, just because you think venezuela is going to increase their production to 3.2, 3.3 million barrels over the course of the next year or so. you don't sell wti right now. but i don't think this is anything bullish for crude oil and it's not a reason to go out and buy it. that's for certain. >> dennis, great to see you. >> thank you, mel. good to see you. >> dennis gartman. he mixed it up. threw me off. >> great to see you? >> i'm sure it's good to be seen, too. >> you don't want to be predictable, ever. zblf that's true. >> remember that. >> he got us. >> so, tim, you think maybe

venezuela would not have an impact on stocks, but we did start hearing from, colgate talked about venezuela and devaluation. >> kimberly clark said it's going to be 1%, 2% of their numbers. they get revenues from latin america. venezuela is a major part of that. in terms of the deval, we're going to see that. if you play venezuela, you play it regionally. there's a colombian etf you can play. the colombian oil and gas plays, i would look at those. >> beeks? >> yeah, i think if you look at oil today, it didn't react at all to this. i think dennis is right in the short-term. you don't want to be shorting oil because of this. where i went today and it wasn't because of the chavez death, but it was because it was brazil, and we have industrial production number coming out tomorrow. i bought the brazilian futures, or you can buy ewz.

i think the economy could be bottoming come, a market mystery. but first, a facebook faceoff. karen and tim duke it out. stay tuned. i'm a conservative investor. but that doesn't mean i don't want to make money. i love making money. i try to be smart with my investments. i also try to keep my costs down. what's your plan? ishares. low cost and tax efficient. find out why nine out of ten large professional investors choose ishares for their etfs. ishares by blackrock. call 1-800-ishares for a prospectus which includes investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. read and consider it carefully before investing. risk includes possible loss of principal.

i think facebook gets cheaper as it goes lower and more expensive as it goes higher. hence why i like the stock right now. but if these guy, it breaks their floor, goes down to there? i'm probably going to do some buying. >> that was jim cramer addressing facebook's stealth rally. shares up, surging for the past six months. now, tomorrow, the company holds a special event to reveal a new look for its news fields. so, that takes us to our street

fight. tim is our bull, karen is the bear. total of 90 seconds to make both cases. so, karen, kick it off. >> this is unusual for me in that i'm not saying short facebook. i am a bear on it, but instead, i'm saying, be long google instead of being long facebook. it is a much better business. every valuation is something obviously i care about a lot. on every metric, google is far cheaper, a better business, a much bigger business, which i this is really important. it has a way more seasoned management team. not that facebook has a bad management team, but google, those guys, it's funny to say, those guys are elder statesmen in silicon valley. and they've been doing it for a long time. in this universe. it's a much better management team. and the other thing that i think is interesting, it has a much more seasoned shareholder base. so, i think that they have a little bit more good will from their investors, if they were to hit a speed bump where facebook doesn't have that same shareholder base. >> well, and i think if you look at the shareholder base, that's been a big problem why people

have been bearish on facebook. insiders receiving and people don't feel like anyone is committed to this. i think that's changing. a lot of the lockups and the outreach is -- the letout of the share is in the rear view mirror. the most important thing for these guys, i think we got a month ago. they are starting to monetize. their display has doubled in the past year, but when it comes to mobile, which is the place most people think they cannot do it, that was up 100% and certainly up 23% of their overall ad base. they are starting to make an impact. i was listening to heather bell lee knee talk about a conference where they had some of the largest advertisers in the world are using social. coca-cola said, we like facebook because digital is 15% of our spend. these guys are 7% of that. this is very positive. >> all right, so -- guy -- >> hi. >>y do you fall on this? >> finerman went very zen on timmy there -- >> i didn't know what to do with this. wasn't really taking me on. >> she went lefty on you. i'm in the finerman camp. i was in a similar camp when i

faced off against anthony ahead of earnings, you recall. >> yes. >> so, though it's a much more difficult trade here to be short or flat the name -- >> hold on. guy is agreeing with a buy on google? >> finerman knows. >> facebook, you know, they're talking about growing an monetizing mobile, google, you have that at a much cheaper valuation. >> interesting strategy. karen didn't want to fight me today. i don't blame her. >> because i was wearing jeans, i wasn't ready, okay? if you must know. >> get back to business. >> i'm going to side with tim. i know it doesn't -- it makes a tie, i guess. but for me, facebook, you can't look at the valuation. you can't look at, are they going to moon tiz -- >> don't look at valuation. ignore that. >> isn't that the key -- >> this is the -- >> you have to look at monetization and they are doing it. >> the only reason to buy facebook, you think that mark zuckerberg is the next steve jobs and he's going to come up

with a product and a way to moon tiz the 900 million users that nobody's thought of. beyond that, it's another website that's popular for awhile and cold turn out to be myspace. >> so, you are siding with tim. >> yeah. >> he was saying -- >> i was saying they are monetizing. effectively people expected them not to. it's 23% of their overall ad and i think it's going higher if you look at the numbers. >> all i'm saying is, that's fine and dandy, google has that business -- >> but you are agreeing with me? >> why? it makes no sense to me. >> you know he was bullish, right? >> yes. >> take the benjamins after the show. here you go, buddy. all right, let's go to the viewer here. we want to know who you thought won the street fight. please help us. tweet us zblvrj@cnbcfastmoney a will have results at the end of the show. >> oh, yes we will. all right, the dow set record highs but not every stock is seeing record returns.

let's look at some of the stocks that are trailing the bull. the s&p 500, up 128% since the 2009 lows, but look at this list. hewlett-packard is down 17%. dean foods down 10%. u.s. steel and newmont mining have seen gain, but they are lagging. is it tyke to play catch-up with the stocks? guy, in terms of the miners here? >> obviously, we caution people, if they want to be long gold, but long gold. but newmont, this is a levered way to play gold. i believe they made a 52-week low today, which is interesting, but i do believe, if you think gold is going higher, at this point, given where the stock is, it's a great way to play it in a leverage fashion. >> all right, let's go to another stock here that has been lagging. that is microsoft. i want to go to mike khouw. mike? >> yeah, so, the options market, you saw a lot of calls trading today over 60,000 of them, and

you might take that to mean that the options markets are bullish, but actually, if you take a closer look at those flows, it does seem like some skepticism persists because the most active options were the march 28s, the ones that expire next friday. and what we were seeing is actually quite a lot of selling. and these things are trading for only 30 cents. that's 1% of the stock's current price. someone who semis those calls is willing to sell the stock at 28 bucks. much of this might have been closing, but basically, they're not really seeing a rebound in the shares. >> of all the old technology names out there, tim, which is your favorite? >> microsoft. i like the dividend. i like what they're doing in terms of their space and their partnership with nokia. the windows phones are selling. >> guy? >> in terms of -- >> old technology names. your favorite. >> i'm long that one. >> oracle is not underperforming, but old technology, i still think oracle is the best mna shop out there. that's old technology that has performed that will continue

to -- >> so, not answering her question. >> you -- i don't have -- >> you said the ones that underperformed. i mean -- coming up next, cnbc's -- where's the baby? jane wells goes behind the numbers to tell us what is really fueling this rally. jane? >> i'm still reeling from tim -- tell him, if i had a dollar for every time someone said they liked microsoft, i wouldn't have to do this job. >> can cut me a check, jane. >> it will never get to $40 again. >> sound like you've been burned. >> back to this. yes, people on the street say, we don't know if we trust this rally. i said, where is your money in your 401(k)? oh, stocks. we'll look at some telling numbers and reasons behind that next. ♪ [ cows moo ] [ sizzling ] more rain... [ thunder rumbles ] ♪

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the flexibility of being a stand alone company. in addition, he says, it should create additional value for the company's stock hold earls. you might recall earlier today, a headline crossed saying that a potential deal by time warner to sell toll meredith had fallen through because of valuation issues. one other piece of information here. time inc's ceo told time warner, while she will stay on through the transition, after that, she has advised them to look for a successo successor. time warner looking to spin off time inc. back to you, melissa. >> thank you, mary. now, i can get why you can make the case it's good for time warner. but who would want to buy time inc? >> that's the problem. when the eskimos, ready to pass away, they put them out on a block of ice and put them out into the ocean. >> that's what's known as a spin-off. and that is what's happening here. we have a spin-off of this print business that, i guess, couldn't be sold. >> it's a dying business, nobody

reads magazines anymore. >> yeah, just put it on a block of ice and send it off. maybe some shareholders will like it. sometimes those things work. >> i'm glad we got the bottom line on that. xa exactly is fuelling the rally that's brought the dow to record highs? and where is this one coming from? jane wells has been digging through the data, joins us now. jane, what have you found? >> the money appears to be coming from everywhere, but a huge portion of it is from 401(k) accounts as more americans go back to work. 401(k) accounts. the average account was $77,000. now, not enough to retire on, but 12% more than a year earlier. for people 55 and older, the average topped $143,000. analysis of investors had a 401(k) and an ira, the average is $225,000. the rise is credited to increased contribution and a better performance, and, well,

because everyone is doing it, the herd mentality. confidence has grown, especially on the coasts, as housing improves. home prices go up, confidence goes up, investing goes up. even as home prices are still 27% bell low their previous highs. but it's not just 401(k) money flowing in. look at the numbers from e-trade. in january, there was a little bit more than 3% rise in net new brokerage accounts, though stock plan and banking accounts were way down. daily average revenue trachlds roetz 18% from the month before and net new brokerage assets were a billion dollars. but once burned, twice shy. even as people say they are directing more of their 401(k) money into stocks, many will tell you they are just not giddy about it this time. melissa? >> jane, interesting, because, unemployment, there's probably 6 million more people out of work than there was the last time we were at this level in the market, so, that's a little bizarre. >> yes. >> how about people like e-trade

and, i mean, i haven't seen the kind of recovery in their share prices that i would think would warrant this kind of activity. >> well, but you are starting to see more trade activity. more net assets coming in. i'm not a stock picker, though i bashed microsoft. >> way to go, jane. >> yeah, i know. but you are starting to see upward movement in there. but again, i think, most of this activity that you're seeing is people just socking it away in their 401(k)s. >> all right, jane, good to see you. thank you for that. jane wells joining us from the west coast. coming up next, stocks rally why the euro falls. is this a warning sign for investors? we have some answers when we come right back. ♪ there'll be the usual presentations on research. and development. some new members of the team will be introduced. the chairman emeritus will distribute his usual wisdom. and you? well, you're the chief life officer. you just need the right professional to help you take charge. ♪

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call this a market mystery. the s&p 500 near all-time highs, but the euro is breaking down. typically they tend to move together. so, the question is simple, is the currency market flashing a warning sign for stocks? beekers? what do you see? >> i actually think no. i'm skeptical of stocks up at these levels but i don't think it's because of the currency markets. people are putting money into the u.s. market. that's going to make a strong u.s. dollar.

the euro, for tomorrow, we have an ecb meeting. i think they are going to be hard pressed to cut rates or ease anymore. i think they are going to be hard pressed to do that in light of what's going on in italy. i don't think they want to help or hurt that situation. i don't hit the euro going down is a bad thing for the stock market. >> okay, so, where do you think the euro -- do you think it's going to move lower? >> no, i think it's going to move higher. my big picture is that it is ultimately becoming the new deutsch mark. that's going to take two years from now. i'm long the euro. i think the market in the short-term has mispriced what the ecb is going to do tomorrow. but the trade for tonight is buy the euro versus the yen and the reason why you do that is because you have the bank of japan meeting tomorrow, which, again, i think the market hasn't priced in enough easing there. the money in motion trade is, you buy the euro yen right now, 122.25, call it, where it went out. i think it goes to 130. use 118.70 as your stop. >> i feel like you lobbed the douche mark thing, threw it out

there, oh, but the trade is because of the bank of japan tomorrow. >> well, so, the deutsch mark -- >> a lot like his endorsement of his facebook thing. >> let's get to your tweets. guy, this one is for you. how much longer can hsy keep climbing. >> hold 'em or fold 'em? >> huh? is that the game here? >> the tweeter is asking -- >> good job on the game. i tell you why. i think it's way ahead of itself based on wb's foray into heinz. i'm taking the money and running on this one. that's a wall street term. >> fold 'em! karen? >> yeah? >> is there any reason to like walgreens at this level? >> there is. the valuation is not really stretched at all. it is sort of attractive. i'm long cvs. i like that better. not a pure play like walgreens is. at this level, it's okay to own.

what is that? that's a mealy -- >> that's a mealy hold 'em. tim, why the drop in pipeline companies, large near the money punts? >> i think some of this is significant cap x. if you look at the best in the breed, by the way, possibly of any play, these are the largest pipe players. i think this is a -- it's a cyclical story here. these guys have been trading sideways for the last year. this is an opportunity to look at their cap x and play the weakness and get longer. >> all right, we have your first move tomorrow, so stay tuned.